38th Annual International Conference on Global Health

Securing a Healthier Future in a Changing World

What will the world’s population look like in 20 years?

If current demographic changes continue, the average age will be older in most parts of the world than it is today, more people will live in cities, and population growth will have slowed throughout the world except in Africa. These trends naturally result in changes in the burden of disease, most notably a transition from infectious to non-communicable diseases, from acute to chronic disease.

Chronic disease

Treating chronic diseases requires healthcare systems designed to address long-term medical needs, which can be very costly in terms of personnel, facilities and equipment, and information management. Incorporating local needs into national plans will require balancing community-based personal interaction with hospital- or clinic-based care and the use of information technologies (in both the developed and developing world). Access to inexpensive treatments for and management of chronic conditions will be needed in all countries, but particularly in low-income countries.

Urbanization and malnutrition

The world also faces new challenges resulting from increasing urbanization and associated problems, such as violence, childhood obesity, and the spread of infectious diseases. Climate change poses significant health risks, including an increase in malnutrition due to shifts in agricultural production. The current economic crisis further challenges systems and the capacity to respond.

Balancing health needs

While this theme highlights the health concerns of an aging population, it is equally important to emphasize the health needs of young people, who make up the majority of the world’s population.

• What policy and program changes changes will be needed to address the demographic and epidemiologic transition?
  
  
• How will the diverse set of public and private sector stakeholders in global health – government officials, program implementers, donors, researchers, corporate partners and civil society advocates – respond to these changes?
  
  
• What does an aging population mean in terms of resource use?
  
  
• How will the least developed countries adjust to these changes?
  
  
• How can the global health community apply lessons learned about improving healthcare systems to the demographic and epidemiologic transition?
  
  
• How will workforce needs change in response to the transition? How can job shifting help address the gap between need and available resources?
  
  
• What new technologies are needed and how can they be developed? What incentives or financing mechanisms are needed?
  
  
• What do countries/governments identify as needs and what do they want? How can the global health community improve cohesion between product development, product distribution and national health plans?
  
  
• How and where can modern information and communication technologies (ICTs) and services, be used to support and measure interventions along the continuum of care, and assist and measure the application of other innovations?
  
  
• What fundamental shifts in thinking will be required by policymakers to help address chronic and non-communicable diseases?
  
  
• How can we use improved health outcomes to reduce social inequities?
  
  
• What resource needs and strategies are required to ensure that gaps in financing are addressed?