Coronavirus: What Businesses and Decision Makers Need to Know

Overview:
The health and economic dangers associated with COVID-19 are obvious, and they have exposed serious vulnerabilities in complex international supply chains. China has meanwhile threatened openly to curtail exports of rare earths that go into electric vehicles and even lifesaving medications.

The good news is however that, if everybody does what the CDC, OSHA, and the Surgeon General are telling us what to do, the outbreak is likely to be suppressed by summer into a still-dangerous but manageable nuisance. This conclusion is from the SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model that shows that enough countermeasures (including but not limited to hygiene and social distancing) will send the disease into a decline before it has a chance to peak. An overview of OSHA’s recommendations for workplace safety, and other countermeasures that can be taken, will be provided.

Areas Covered in the Session:
1.  Health and economic risks associated with COVID-19

• The disease is highly contagious, more lethal than seasonal flu, and has no existing vaccine.
• Supply chains have already been disrupted and China has threatened on more than one occasion to disrupt them intentionally.

2.  The good news (if everybody does what OSHA, the CDC, and so on tell us to do) is that we have a chance to suppress the outbreak by summer and take the 2019-2020 flu season down with it.

• This is achievable by reducing the basic reproduction number R0, the average number of people to whom an infected person will give the disease, to less than 1. This scenario is rarely if ever addressed in online presentations about “flattening the curve.”